USDCAD has hit a crucial support of 1.2743. I would be monitoring this support level closely, a break below this crucial support would see USDCAD hitting my first target profit of 1.2600. Been shorting my good friend USDCAD since January 2016. First round of profit were taken out early January and when we detected a trend continuation, we started to stack the sell trades. Last night drop in the USDCAD was attributed to Saudis and Russians reaching consensus on oil output freeze. Now many would question, with Iran not joining the fray as yet, would it affect the deal? My view is simple, it would take years for the Iran to catch up after its embargo was lifted. For Iran to increase its output by another 1 million barrels per day, it has to upgrade its existing infrastructure. For that to happen it needs capital investments and this will take time. So for the short term, Iran would not affect the price much.
So depending on the outcome of the meeting this weekend and subsequent news, I may differ my target to 1.2316. At the beginning of 2016, my final target was 1.2518 and I revised it to 1.2600 this month. So right now with the potential shift in fundamentals, looks like 1.2600 is my first target and second at 1.2316.